Jollibee Food Corporation's momentum lifts margins, but Smashburger and China losses loom—analyst
The coffee and tea segment continues to be a catalyst for the group's earnings
Jollibee Foods Corporation (JFC) earnings momentum is being driven by stronger systemwide sales growth in the Philippines and overseas, improving same-store sales in its home market and a rapid store rollout that underpins revenue growth, according to Maybank.
Jollibee reported preliminary full-year 2025 sales growth of 16.6% year-on-year, surpassing its previous guidance of 8% to 12%, with fourth quarter same-store sales (SSS) rising by 12% to $2.1b (PhP122.3b).
Maybank notes that the Philippines' business improved sequentially in the fourth quarter, with same-store sales growth rising to 5% from 1.2% in the third quarter, alongside 3.8% private consumption growth in the same period.
EBITDA is predicted to grow of 17% in both 2025 and 2026 as margins expand on sustained momentum in the Philippines and a rising contribution from the coffee and tea segment.
However, potential risk includes worsening operating losses at Smashburger and in China, higher inflation that could dampen discretionary spending, and unexpected supply chain or logistics issues that could disrupt sales or lift costs, the note added.
By the end of 2025, Jollibee’s store network reached 10,341 locations.
Maybank Securities analysts expect full-year revenue growth of 11% for Jollibee, with operating profit and net income expected to rise 20% and 17%, respectively.
